Now that we have pointed out the special features of this interesting market, we would like to take a look at what a concrete “Halftime/Fulltime” betting strategy at non GamStop bookmakers might look like and present you with 5 tips that will help you use this market successfully in the future. For a broader perspective on how these platforms operate and what to expect, check out our non GamStop betting experience overview to better prepare your strategy.
Tip 1: Pay Attention to the Payout Key at Non GamStop Bookmakers
Right from the start, it’s important to keep in mind that “Halftime/Fulltime” bets on the Premier League at non GamStop bookmakers have a lower overall payout ratio at most bookmakers than the bets in the classic 3-way system. This also means that you won’t necessarily find a positive expected value if your analysis has favored a particular betting option.
Let’s stick with the example we outlined earlier, where you estimate the probabilities for “Tip 1 / Tip 1” and “Tip X / Tip 1” to be 33% each. In both cases, this would require odds of 3.10 or higher to truly constitute a value bet. Otherwise, placing this bet will result in a loss sooner or later. It’s vital for your career in sports betting that you realize this. It may be incredibly frustrating if you first painstakingly studied all the figures, facts, and data and came to the conclusion that a certain outcome is associated with a correspondingly high probability of occurrence, before then realizing that the odds are too low to place a bet. However, if you place the bet anyway, it will ultimately result in a loss.
So you have two options. First, you can back off the bet and, based on the collected data, consider the possibility of betting on another market for this match (or see if an “over/under” bet on the goals or something similar might offer sufficient value). Or second, you can compare the odds from various online bookmakers (assuming the required value was only just missed) and check whether you can place the bet elsewhere at the required minimum odds, which would then actually result in a positive expected value.
Tip 2: Odds Boost for Favorites at Non GamStop Bookmakers
An interesting “Halftime/Fulltime” betting strategy can arise if, as mentioned in the example from the introduction to this article, you play this market as a kind of odds boost for favorites. These situations are numerous and crop up again and again in the Premier League, too. An absolute favorite, who is currently doing just fine, welcomes a massive underdog in their own stadium. The odds for pick 1 may even be set so low that they’re below 1.10. Perhaps 1.05, at which you would practically have to stake €100 to generate a profit of €5.
In short: the risk that this overwhelmingly popular bet might actually end up losing money is disproportionate to the small potential for winning. This is an excellent opportunity to check the odds for the “Halftime/Fulltime” bet, which could easily be in the range of 1.40, 1.50, or even 1.60 for “Tip 1/Tip 1.” Often, this is precisely the odds boost needed to make such favorite bets viable, because the risk remains manageable here, too, but the potential for winning is a different story.
Nevertheless, the “Halftime/Fulltime” bet shouldn’t be considered a no-brainer. It’s important to take a close look at every match where the odds make it attractive. For example, if the underdog has proven to be a particularly tough nut to crack, especially in the first half, even against other top favorites, or if it’s shaping up to be a game of patience for the favorite, it might be better to avoid the bet. All of these are based on experience and guidelines, but they are available to you. Therefore, always check the factors that could still stand in the way of this bet before placing it.
Tip 3: Observe Anomalies
When you watch a live football match on TV, you’ll constantly come across some interesting statistic being shared by the commentator. For example, that Team A particularly likes to score in the last 15 minutes. Or that Team B hasn’t won away in X games. Etc.
These are all things that the commentator or his editorial team noticed during the preparation for the match. They don’t have insights you don’t have. They’re simply observing anomalies that weren’t evident in other teams and putting them into context.
To place successful sports bets, you need to do exactly the same. Pay attention to when which teams score their goals. How often a potential “halftime/full-time” bet in the Premier League would have paid off and when it wouldn’t. Look not only at the recent results of the teams involved, but also at the halftime scores. We’ve provided a link to an interesting Premier League statistic that might provide you with further insights.
Tip 4: Pay Attention to the Starting Position
While it’s often only truly relevant in the final third of the season, it’s certainly all the more so then. The starting position of the match. In other words: What’s at stake for both teams? Does Team A absolutely have to keep its direct rivals at bay in the battle for the championship or Champions League, or is there not much at stake for the team in the dreary nirvana of the Premier League? Does Team B need to get some breathing room in the basement and could even be completely satisfied with just one point?
The starting position often determines a team’s tactical approach. And if two teams are playing defensively, there’s a strong indication that the game hasn’t been decided yet, at least at halftime, or that a possible decision won’t be made until the second half. Of course, a goal in football can always come out of nowhere, which is the beauty and interest of the sport. Nevertheless, in some scenarios with a high probability of occurring, a draw at halftime can be predicted. And if you now go through the nine possibilities of a “Halftime/Fulltime” bet again, you’ll notice that a whopping six other outcomes are eliminated.
A big step towards positive expected values, which we would like to emphasize in more detail in the last tip.
Tip 5: Eliminate Options
Let’s assume you can almost categorically rule out the possibility of a draw between the two teams in a match. For example, because both Team A and Team B absolutely need the three points and will both be looking for an open slugfest at the end. So, theoretically, it would be possible to place the same amount on Tip 1 and Tip 2 in the classic 3-way system, provided both odds are above 2.00. In the end, you would definitely end up winning this way, unless the unlikely scenario of a draw actually occurs. Simply by eliminating certain options in the 3-way system.
And that’s exactly what you can do with the 9-way system for “Halftime/Fulltime” bets. As mentioned above, a certain draw at halftime eliminates a whopping six options. It would therefore be possible to bet the same amount on each of the three remaining options: “Tip X / Tip 1”, “Tip X / Tip X”, and “Tip X / Tip 2”. As long as all three markets have odds above 3.00, meaning the stake is more than tripled, you would always end up with a profit – assuming, of course, that the score is actually tied at halftime.
Finally, please note that, depending on the specific odds structure, it is possible to achieve a guaranteed profit by placing single bets in parallel by gradually eliminating options whose probability of occurrence is in the per mille range.
Conclusion
In today’s sports betting guide, we’ve discussed the topic of “Halftime/Fulltime” bets in detail. We hope the knowledge we’ve gathered here has helped you profitably and optimally utilize this market in the future. Ultimately, however, it’s always important to adhere strictly to the mathematical principles that must always form the basis of every sports bet. This means that you must always calculate whether a value bet is being made based on the betting odds and probabilities of the market before carefully calculating the optimal stake based on your current bankroll.
Once you’ve mastered these basics, the “Halftime/Fulltime” betting strategy is a great addition to your sports betting portfolio, one that can take your game and your betting slips to the next level. We wish you a cool head for all your calculations and the right instinct for the right market in the right situation.